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Another example is the ongoing conflict in Yemen, which is also being fueled by climate change. The conflict has created a humanitarian crisis and displaced millions of people. The instability in Yemen has also allowed al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to operate more freely.

The U.S. government has recognized the threat posed by failed states and ungoverned spaces. In 2015, the Obama administration released a National Security Strategy that identified climate change as a “threat multiplier.” The strategy stated that climate change “will increase the likelihood of instability, conflict, and mass displacement.”

The Trump administration downplayed the threat posed by climate change, but the Biden administration has made it a priority. In 2021, the Biden administration released a National Security Strategy that stated that climate change is “an existential threat” to the United States. The strategy also stated that the United States will work with its allies to “address the security implications of climate change.”

There are a number of ways that the United States can address the threat posed by failed states and ungoverned spaces resulting from the impacts of climate change. These include:

• Promoting climate resilience and adaptation in developing countries. This can help to reduce the likelihood of climate change-induced instability and conflict.
• Supporting good governance and rule of law in developing countries. This can help to create conditions that are less conducive to terrorism and other criminal activity.
• Working with allies to address the security implications of climate change. This can include sharing intelligence, coordinating military operations, and providing humanitarian assistance.

The United States must take the threat posed by failed states and ungoverned spaces resulting from the impacts of climate change seriously. This is a complex challenge, but it is one that the United States cannot afford to ignore.