The Logic of Inference: The Science of Uncertainty

https://www.ted.com/talks/anne_milgram_why_smart_statistics_are_the_key_to_fighting_crime
Frankfort-Nachmias, C., Leon-Guerrero, A., & Davis, G. (2020). Social statistics for a diverse society (9th ed.).
Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Chapter 1, “The What and the Why of Statistics” (pp. 1–25)
Wagner, III, W. E. (2020). Using IBM® SPSS® statistics for research methods and social science statistics (7th
ed.). Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications.
Chapter 1, “Overview”
Describing and explaining social phenomena is a complex task. Box’s quote speaks to the point that it is a near
impossible undertaking to fully explain such systems—physical or social—using a set of models. Yet even
though these models contain some error, the models nevertheless assist with illuminating how the world works
and advancing social change.
The competent quantitative researcher understands the balance between making statements related to
theoretical understanding of relationships and recognizing that our social systems are of such complexity that
we will always have some error. The key, for the rigorous researcher, is recognizing and mitigating the error as
much as possible.
As a graduate student and consumer of research, you must recognize the error that might be present within
your research and the research of others.
Use the Walden Library Course Guide and Assignment Help found in this week’s Learning Resources to
search for and select a quantitative article that interests you and that has social change implications.
As you read the article, reflect on George Box’s quote in the introduction for this Discussion.
For additional support, review the Skill Builder: Independent and Dependent Variables, which you can find by
navigating back to your Blackboard Course Home Page. From there, locate the Skill Builder link in the left
navigation pane.
Post a very brief description (1–3 sentences) of the article you found and address the following:
Describe how you think the research in the article is useful (e.g., what population is it helping? What problem is
it solving?).
Using Y=f(X) +E notation, identify the independent and dependent variables.
How might the research models presented be wrong? What types of error might be present in the reported
research?