Business Process Analysis and Innovation
“To develop demand estimates, managers forecast the quantity and timing of sales; they also make plans to
influence or “manage” customers’ demand patterns. These two activates, demand forecasting and demand
management, are collectively known as demand planning” (Swink, Melnyk, Hartly, 2020, p.406).
Companies learn about their customers and learn when times are really good for selling products customers
will by. They also know when times are slow and will push out specific sales to get more revenue. Having data
collected over years and by seasons helps to drive the demand for products.
This Sentence Means:
Data collection in demand forecasting and demand management play a large role in how a company will sell
products. Having these demands in the planning will “meet the firm’s operational and financial goals” (Swink et
al., 2020). Companies will come up with plans to sell items as they can manage customers to come into a store
or buy online when they put up these sales at any time.
What This Sentence Means to me Now:
In my current sales position, I see many sales happening each month that get many Guests buying more
product. Whoever is in charge of watching the data form past years and current on when Guest buy have the
perfect information. Guest will even call the next day when a sale is over to get the same deal, even though it
will not work as another sale is on its way or specific items are having a sale. Right now, the month of
September has been a huge demand in both forecasting and management for Halloween items. Also in this
demand planning the company sees costs that are to high, to low, what brings in good revenue, and what loses
revenue.
Reference:
Swink, M., Melnyk, S. A., & Hartley, J. L. (2020). Managing operations across the supply chain (4th ed.). New
York, NY: McGraw-Hill Education.
- Alex
Good Morning,
Significant Sentence- “The choice of a forecasting process depends on conditions in the operating
environment…” (Swink, Melnyk, & Hartley, 2020, p. 438)
What does this sentence mean- Various factors including time horizon, the level of detail, the number of
products included in the forecast and the emphasis on control and planning requirements drive the style and
method of data gathering and how the analysis is conducted. The forecast built from the analysis must meet
the decision makers needs and be easily understood by the audience to be useful.
What does it mean to me now- As an Army Logistics Officer most of my forecasting is conducted by days of
supply for known/established commodities. You calculate Days of Supply, or DOS, by dividing the on hand
quantity by the daily consumption rate. Then forecasting is deciding when the customer unit needs the next
resupply before they hit zero. The significant sentence tells that in a commercial environment there are more
factors that can affect the method of forecasting. It also brings to light how black and white military commodity
forecasting is compared to commercial requirements.
Swink, M., Melnyk, S.A, & Hartley, J.L. (2020). Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain (4th ed). New
York, NY: McGraw Hill. - Marissa
Significant Sentences: Week Six
Introduction
I found the following sentence to best represent the themes in the week six reading: “Quick sales data
collection is important because current data are more relevant for forecasting future sales” (Swink, Melnyk &
Hartley, 2020, p. 433).
This Sentence is Basically About
This sentence identifies that the most recent data is best for forecasting future sales, especially in certain
industries such as fast fashion where fashion trends change rapidly. This can help “drive immediate action
within an organization, such as deciding how much inventory to order” (Recalde, 2016, para. 14).
This Sentence Means
The timeliness of data is a critical factor in demand planning. Additionally, businesses such as Destination
Maternity, rely upon information systems to better facilitate receipt of data up to the minute, which ultimately
helps a business attain its competitive objectives.
What This Sentence Means to me Now
Forecasting is dramatically impacted by which data an organization chooses to analyze. In fashion, looking at
the most up-to-date information will help organizations achieve their objectives. However, in doing some
research, it appears there is not a single consensus on which data is best for forecasting. “The texture of past
events can be used to connect the dots of present indicators and thus reliably map the future’s trajectory—
provided one looks back far enough” (Saffo, 2007, para. 36). Ultimately, in comparing the textbook to other
sources, it appears that managers must choose the best fit for their industry, which could include choosing a
hybrid approach, where both current and historical data is considered for forecasts.
References
Recalde, A. (2016, September 8). Using Data to Forecast the Future. Retrieved from
https://blog.rjmetrics.com/2016/09/08/using-data-to-forecast-the-future/
Saffo, P. (2007, August). Six Rules for Effective Forecasting. Harvard Business Review. Retrieved from
https://hbr.org/2007/07/six-rules-for-effective-forecasting
Swink, M., Melnyk, S.A, & Hartley, J.L. (2020). Managing Operations Across the Supply Chain (4th ed). New
York, NY: McGraw Hill.